As our scientific understanding of human psychology evolves, so does the intelligence community’s understanding of motives and threat factors previously not accounted for. As technological tools evolve, so do the effectiveness and accuracy of protective intelligence and threat assessment investigations. To predict specific future violence, a protective intelligence investigation must determine: ‘Whether an individual has the motive and means to develop or act on an opportunity to attack a protected person’. ‘ U.S. Department of Justice. To attack a prominent figure requires one or more of the following steps: research, logistical planning, obtaining weapon(s), studying the security situation, an attack plan, and an escape plan. These are breadcrumbs that can be identified and followed.
Source: https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2021/05/17/intelligence-community-threats/